客观主义者对概率的看法...

QQTBOY · 发表于 9-1-2007 15:37:00|来自：新加坡

  <div vshape="_x0000_s1026"><div class="O" style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 178%; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 60%; LEFT: -3.54%; COLOR: #1c1c1c; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0.61em; mso-special-format: bullet; mso-color-index: 2;">p</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 32pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">概率是宇宙的真实方面：它是物体的行为表现</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 32pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">为特定方式的倾向，而不仅仅是对观察者信心</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 32pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的描述 </span></div><div class="O1" style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 156%; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 55%; LEFT: -2.97%; COLOR: #3333cc; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0.74em; mso-special-format: bullet; mso-color-index: 7;">l</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">频率主义者的观点：断言</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">有牙洞的概率是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">0.1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">意味</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">着</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><i>0.1</i></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">是在无穷多样本的极限条件下能够被观察到的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">比例，但 </span></div><div class="O1" style="mso-line-spacing: '100 20 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 468; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 156%; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 55%; LEFT: -3.12%; COLOR: #3333cc; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0.74em; mso-special-format: bullet; mso-color-index: 7;">l</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">即使是严格的频率主义者的见解也涉及到主观分</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">析</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 28pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">—reference class </span></span></div><div class="O" style="mso-line-spacing: '100 50 0'; mso-margin-left-alt: 216; mso-char-wrap: 1; mso-kinsoku-overflow: 1;"></div></div>[em09][em09][em09][em15][em15]